Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
