Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
